The logic behind the Star's reporting is made that much clearer by the fact that Thomson is in fact 3 points ahead of Rossi. Yeah... you figure it out.
Still, the question does remain regarding how the other candidates would best defeat Rob Ford. The Star obviously has not thought this through past their unabashed slobbering over George Smitherman; much of the support for Pantalone, Thomson and Rossi would go to Ford if any of them dropped out.
In fact, as the Toronto Sun reports, 19.3% of voters' second choice is Rob Ford vs 15.3% for Smitherman. This makes it statistically impossible for an Anyone-But-Ford campaign lead by Smitherman to win.
If the other candidates dropping out won't defeat Ford, it seems to me that there is only one solution: George Smitherman should drop out now and lead the way throwing his support behind the most right-wing of the remaining candidates.
King George's camp seems to be the most entrenched ideologically. So, it is unlikely that his supporters would vote for Ford as a second choice. Moving politically left to right -- from him to the next most right-wing candidate beside Ford -- each candidate's supporters would more likely throw their support behind anyone but Ford which isn't true in the opposite direction of politically right to left. As such, if Smitherman and two other candidates dropped out and threw their support against the most right-wing of the remaining candidates, their supporters would likely see that candidate as the lesser of two evils.
Unfortunately for them, the closest thing to a right-wing candidate next to Rob Ford happens to be Rocco Rossi who is polling last at 8% of decided voters.
Ultimately, the notion of an Anyone-But-Ford campaign is simply another symptom of the rot in Toronto municipal politics. Any candidate who drops out of the race now to throw their support behind somebody else reveals them to be completely devoid of principle. They have worked hard with their campaign workers, their supporters and presenting their own vision for the city. To fold now shows a complete disregard and disrespect for all of these elements.
I can only imagine how their supporters would react if these so-called "leaders" they were bucking for followed somebody else and drove their campaign off a cliff. I know I wouldn't exactly be appreciative of that. And I can see many campaign supporters voting for Ford just out of spite for the disregard the other candidates are showing them, their ideals, their efforts and the entire notion of democracy.
***UPDATE***
As it turns out -- and I really should have expected as much from the Star -- the poll they put out is in huge disagreement with other polls. Hardly surprising when you look at how the Star is doing everything to skew every aspect of this mayoral contest. As such, their poll has shown a drop from the mid-to-high 40's down to around 39% for Ford.
I guess when you actually have a poll identified as being from "Toronto Star - Angus Reid", you have to know that they are polling for themselves and their ideals. Meanwhile a Nanos poll from the exact same time period shows Rob Ford's mid-to-high 40's lead as being rock solid.
The funny part of this being that the numbers in the Nanos poll -- showing Thomson behind Rossi -- are more in line with the Star's reasoning for Sarah Thomson to concede and throw support behind Rossi!
I guess when you want to pointless badmouth Ford you use your own numbers. But when you want to logically convince Thomson to drop out, you use somebody else's numbers. It's clear that the Star's poll is emotional and the Nanos poll is logical. And that's all you need to know to figure out whose numbers are right.
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