Here's how I look at it.
The peak murder rate over the last 44 years was in 1975 when Canada was at 3.03 murders per 100,000 people. Today the rate is at 1.3 murders per 100,000 people.
Dropping roughly 57 percent seems like a big deal, enough that it might call into question the need for more prisons today right? Well, not really.
If you look at statistical data on violent crime, 44 years ago there were approximately 350 incidents of violent crime per 100,000 people. That peaked with a spike around 1992 to roughly 1,100 incidents per 100,000. Today, the rate is approximately 900 incidents per 100,000.
With those numbers in hand you can determine that homicide accounted for 0.37% of all violent crime in 1967 and 0.6% at its 1970's peak. Today it accounts for 0.17% of all violent crimes.
So while it may seem like there's a huge drop in homicide rates, as a percentage of all violent crimes it amounted to a decrease of 0.43% from the peak rate and 0.2% from where it was 44 years ago.
Hardly seems impressive, doesn't it?
If the media and the left want to talk about crime over the last 44 years, I'm all for it. Our violent crime rate today is 260% of what it was 44 years ago. Doesn't sound like crime is under control when you put it that way, does it?
*** Update ***
A comment by BlameCrash actually makes a very interesting point. These numbers are representative of a per 100,000 people in Canada. But that doesn't take into account the growing population.
The population was 20 million in 1966, 22 million in 1976 and is presently 33.7 million. If one were to assume the percentage convicted remained the same, that would mean that the prison population today would actually be 4 times that of what it was in the 1960's.
Yet, when one looks at incarceration rates, this is not the case. Alarmingly, it is quite the opposite!
In fact, in 1966 the total number of adults incarcerated was twice the number of incidents of violent crime. By the 1990's the numbers were exactly the same. So, while violent crime had been increasing, the number sent to prison for violent offences as a percent of all convictions would have actually had to decrease significantly.
Do we need any further proof that violent offences have been treated with increasing leniency?
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6 comments:
Since modern medicine now saves a lot of those who would have died 30 years ago, since police now wear bullet proof vests they didn't wear 30 years ago, we should be looking at the comparative attempted murder rates and the ratio of attempted to completed murders.
The population has grown considerably so the percentage per 100 K is immaterial when your discussing the need for more prisons. It's the real numbers of the "convicted" that will drive the need to expand or contract the prison spaces.
Fred: Actually, the attempted murder rate did go up as the homicide rate went down from 1977 to 1980. After that, the attempted murder rate went down alongside the homicide rate pretty similarly
http://www.statcan.gc.ca/pub/85-002-x/2008007/article/10658-eng.htm#a3
Blame Crash: Good point. Let me add that in.
I've argued this point elsewhere, but of course, to no avail. Which point? The fact that crimes classified under homicide years ago may not be classified as such today, which would partly explain reduced rates.
One recent example:
http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/montreal/story/2011/07/05/quebec-turcotte-verdict.html
"A jury has found Guy Turcotte, the Quebec cardiologist who admitted he stabbed his two children to death, not criminally responsible because of a mental disorder. ...
The jury had to decide on one of four scenarios: first-degree murder, second-degree murder, manslaughter or not criminally responsible by reason of mental illness. ..."
Since Dr. Turcotte was found "not criminally responsible," I assume the deaths of his two children will not figure among the tally of homicides for 2009.
There've been cases where homicides were committed under the guise of mercy killing or assisted suicide, which unless i'm mistaken is still illegal in Canada, but because those crimes were committed on "compassionate grounds" I imagine they too would be omitted from the homicide list.
A few past examples found here:
http://www.citytv.com/toronto/citynews/news/local/article/17566--mercy-killing-a-reasonable-request-or-murder
"...
1985: Toronto
Lois Wilson helps her boyfriend drown himself after both believe he's been diagnosed with incurable stomach cancer. She pleads guilty and receives a six-month sentence.
1985: Montreal
Bruno Bergeron kills his 94-year-old Alzheimer-stricken wife with an axe because he can no longer care for her. He pleads guilty to the killing but receives a suspended sentence.
1990: Vancouver
David Lewis helps put an end to the lives of eight patients suffering from AIDS. He was going to be charged with murder, but the counts are never laid. Lewis refused to reveal the names of those he'd help die and there wasn't enough evidence to pursue further charges. ..."
So, indeed, there has been more & more leniency shown towards crime generally.
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