But let's not forget what happens every single time we see one of these polls.
Next week another poll will come out dropping the Conservatives down to 37 to 38% and the media will say the Conservatives must have lost the faith of the Canadian public. I'm sure Frank Graves over at Ekos is doing his own completely unbiased polling which will place the Liberals much higher and the Conservatives much lower.
After all, he has to give Jane Taber something to drool over when she interviews him next.
So, let's not get too hasty here. The election hasn't been called yet and there's a lot of ink to be spilled / pixels to be cycled before a vote even takes place. I certainly won't hide my preference of a Conservative majority government. And I think most Canadians are going to consider voting for the Conservatives if only to end the bothersome trips to the polling booth that the Opposition never seems to tire of.
Posts
9 comments:
A single poll means nothing unless it is the actual ballot.
This is a trend with above 36 for several polls and Liberals hitting below 27 in many of them.
Forecast 150 seats vs low 70's will demoralize the grassroots in the left.
The following seat projection is based upon a blended sample of three weighted polls conducted by Ipsos, Nanos and Harris-Decima from March 10 to March 20. The aggregate sample includes approximately 4000 respondents. It suggests that the basic pattern of party preference has been quite stable over the past six weeks. This projection assumes an 8% Conservative lead in Ontario, down 1 point since the previous projection. There have been a few other small shifts since the last LISPOP projection, the Conservatives up a bit in the Atlantic region and down somewhat in the west, especially BC. However most of that can be accounted for by sampling error, which has been true of the overall national pattern since early February.
http://www.wlu.ca/lispop/
Not getting hasty but it's good to come out of the gate with a nineteen point lead.
This election is about the last election's unfinished business.
Conservatives or Coalition.
That's the issue.
personally I think this will hold. Because people are terrified of a coaliton government with the Bloc quebecois in volved remember that letter dosen't expire untill june 2011. so as long as that threat is there they will be high poling numbers. and we get our majority. but if ignatieff wants to run a coalition then he can't have liberals running in ndp stong holds and Ndp running in liberal strong holds. and there should only be like 2 people at the debates that would be the conservative our PM. and the leader of the coalition party. we also have to have a vote on weather we want a coalition party.
Roy, I hope your right. I think if we get a majority, you'll see the NDP and Liberals start to talk seriously about a merger. The Bloc will also slowly disappear because the per-vote subsidy will be gone with a Tory majority.
Hopefully in four or five years we'll have a real two-party system.
You were saying
http://www.ctv.ca/CTVNews/TopStories/20110324/nanos-poll-trust-in-government-110324/
NO chance this poll will hold. I smell overconfidence in the Conservative wing, and that will be fatal if we are not careful.
It seems like every time we do good, we end up shooting ourselves in the foot in some stupid way.
The most frightening 4 words in English:
Finance Minister Bob Rae.
A close second
Industry minister Jack Layton.
Third:
Foreign Minister Giles Duceppe.
I think of those, and that gets me energized. A 19 point lead just makes me complacent.
what about Green Senator Elizabeth May.
I don't worry about complacency or over-confidence. Harper has got three general elections under his belt, he's getting better with each one, and has learned from past mistakes.
He has obviously done a lot of great strategic thinking to get us to this point--prepared a campaign-ready budget, low-balled the Dippers just enough, and out-manouverd the coalition, as they get blamed for forcing the election.
Let's stand back, let him lead, and follow his direction.
Memo to Harper:
You are the underdog, the coalition is ganging up on you, the media elite hate you.
Let this nugget of truth be part of your narrative and you will win.
Post a Comment