Toronto Mayoral Poll Fabrication?

I have suspected all along that the polls showing George Smitherman running a much closer race to Rob Ford were in some ways being fabricated to change the course of the Toronto Mayoral election. It appears that the Globe & Mail has finally given us some proof that something is afoot.

The Globe & Mail are reporting tonight that the latest Nanos poll -- conducted after Rocco Rossi dropped out -- puts Rob Ford's support at 43.9 percent versus George Smitherman's 40.5% and Joe Pantalone at 15%. According to their numbers, the "lion's share" of Rocco Rossi's supporters have migrated to George Smitherman's camp.

If you will recall, just a week ago, Ipsos-Reid pegged George Smitherman's support at 31% with Rob Ford at 30% thus showing a much tighter race. They even mentioned that if you take into account committed voters, George Smitherman's lead over Rob Ford was in fact 6%.

This is where the possible fabrication starts to reveal itself...

If we take Nanos' indication that most of the Rocco Rossi's support went to George Smitherman and apply it to the numbers from the Ipsos-Reid poll, we should in fact see Rob Ford polling in the low to mid 30% range with Smitherman at 40% at least. And yet Nanos shows that we are absolutely nowhere near that scenario.

Additionally, last week Rob Ford's camp indicated that their own internal numbers had him much closer to the 50% mark than what was being reported by Ipsos-Reid, a fact that NOW Magazine derided with their typical, black tooth grin. And yet, if we are to take Nanos' poll as accurate, it would appear that Ford's internal polling was in fact more reliable than Ipsos-Reid.

Which begs the question: what the hell is going on that the polls would be so ridiculously off the mark?

Let's remember that it was the poll Ipsos-Reid released on September 27th pegging Rob Ford's support at 28% against George Smitherman at 23% that convinced Sarah Thomson to bow out of the race and throw her support behind Smitherman. It was also their polling that convinced Rocco Rossi to drop out this past week.

So, we either have both Nanos and Rob Ford's internal polling being way off or we have Ipsos-Reid being way off.

If in fact Nanos' numbers turn out to be closer to the mark on election day, we'll know that Ipsos-Reid conducted two consecutive polls that were completely off the mark. Meanwhile, Nanos' numbers haven't changed much in the past two months. So, if Ipsos-Reid is closer to the mark on election day, we'll know that Nanos conducted two consecutive polls that were completely off the mark.

But they both can't be right. And they all can't be that far off.

Needless to say, I think election day is going to reveal a rat.